Voter Drift & the Coalition’s Biggest Fault Line
By Morgan James - Director at Spectre Strategy
It’s been mere weeks since the 2025 federal election, yet the Coalition's historic defeat has already been dissected in campaign rooms, caucus meetings, and commentary columns across the country. A lacklustre campaign, poor female representation, bad polling, weak policy substance, and of course the shadow of Donald Trump. These are the early culprits in what will become a well-worn post-mortem.
These all merit discussion, but beneath the recriminations and horse-race analysis lies a deeper, more structural shift, one less about the campaign misfires and more about the slow erosion of the party’s purpose and cultural alignment. The Coalition didn’t just lose the 2025 election, it lost a portion of its base, and with it, it’s claim on the demographic future of Australian politics.
Data from a national study we conducted in the final week before the election (24-28 April), surveying 2,000 voters, reveals the scale and dynamics of this drift. Of those who voted for the Coalition in 2022, a near quarter defected (as estimated on a 2025 primary vote baseline of 34%). Looking at the data, the rate and pattern of attrition can’t be explained by campaign missteps alone, and the demographic underpinnings suggest this may only accelerate.
Who’s Leaving
The Coalition’s defections were uneven across the country. In Western Australia defections were more pronounced. Victoria, by contrast, retained more of their voters than other states. But it’s in the composition of these defectors, not just their location, that the deeper issues become apparent.
Of those who stayed with the Coalition from 2022 to 2025, a majority were aged 55 or older (56%). They were more likely to own their home (78%), and more likely to identify as right-leaning.
In contrast, defectors were younger (only 40% over 55), twice as likely to be non-homeowners (43%), and overwhelmingly clustered in the political centre.
This centrist defection cannot be understated. While the Coalition has consolidated its base on the right, it has grown increasingly disconnected from the middle, a once dependable corridor of support, and where a majority of Australia’s women self-identify (50%). Notably, those defectors did not necessarily flock to Labor or the elsewhere without reservation. Half of them (50%) were still uncommitted to a new party by the time of the election.
Housing - The Decisive Fault Line
At the heart of the Coalition’s dilemma is a stark generational divide. Among Australians aged 35-54, the party’s support has eroded, and among those aged 18-34, it is collapsing. This trend is not new, but with millennials now making up the largest share of the electorate, it is becoming decisive. These Australians are not just less likely to vote Coalition, they’re increasingly seeing the party as not even remotely aligned with their economic and social concerns; all the while, four in ten women aged 18-34 signalled their intention to preference the Greens first.
Much of this centres on a single issue - housing. The Coalition continues to poll best among homeowners, with the lion’s share of the primary vote among this group. This pattern even holds true within the younger demographic, defying the broader trend among their age cohort. Among 18-34-year-olds who do own a home, the Coalition leads on primary vote (38%), followed by Labor (33%). The Greens, dominant among young renters, trail significantly (16%).
But this pro-Coalition sentiment exists within a small and shrinking segment, with young homeowners a minority within the coming generation (29% homeowners / 71% non-homeowners).
There’s also a clear political gradient tied to housing, with housing correlating closely with a shifting to the political right among young Australians. Only 16% of Greens voters aged 18-34 own their home, compared to 49% of Coalition voters in the same age bracket. And while they were more likely to save and earn it – they were also more likely to have had help, being notably more likely to report receiving family assistance or inheritance to enter the market.
This pattern extends beyond age groups though and is reflected directly among Coalition defectors more broadly. 43% are non-homeowners, nearly double the 22% among those who remained with the party. Moreover, housing was consistently ranked as one of the top issues requiring government attention by this group and was the issue with the largest priority gap between Coalition defectors and those the party retained.
Losing the Centre While Holding the Fringe
The Liberal Party has long styled itself as the party of aspiration. But in 2025, that message rang hollow for many Australians, particularly younger voters and former loyalists. Aspiration only resonates when the path to get there feels real. And for an increasing number of Australians, especially those locked out of the housing market, it no longer does.
Housing isn’t just another issue on the policy agenda. For many voters, it’s become a symbol of fairness, of opportunity, of whether the system still works. And in this election, housing was the clearest dividing line between those the Coalition kept and those it lost. Among younger voters who do own a home, the Coalition still performs strongly. But that group is shrinking, and many reached the market with family help or inheritance, not through policy settings either party can credibly champion.
You can’t bank on voters drifting right as they age if they’ve never had the economic security to begin with, and after decades of prolonged drift, the Coalition’s vote now relies predominantly on a shrinking demographic: older, wealthier, and disproportionately homeowning Australians. The party retains them, but it is bleeding voters elsewhere, particularly those in the centre.
Labor capitalised on this on election day, but while their victory was broad, it was equally shallow. Among defectors from the Coalition, half had no firm new allegiance by election day, and across the nation, all the pollsters saw that voters switched late, and many more switched reluctantly. The mood was evidently not one of hope, but one of frustration.
The Liberal party still speaks fluently to the generation that once defined Australian politics, but that generation is no longer defining the future. Millennials are now the largest voting bloc. Their concerns are shaping the national mood, and increasingly, their politics is shaped less by loyalty than by lived experience.
If post-election commentary focuses solely on campaign tone, it will miss the deeper structural shift. The Coalition didn't just lose because of Trump, Dutton, or a bad campaign. It lost because too many voters no longer see themselves reflected in its agenda. Unless it can rebuild a bridge to the centre, offering practical, future-focused answers on housing and the cost of living, it won’t just lose power. It will continue to lose relevance.
